It's finally mid season! The numbers start to normalize, the trends are revealed, and the true bumblers separate from the players who can only dream of spectacular flame outs. There are a few teams out on the patio now, hanging around the grill, hoping for a seat at the duct tape couch. We see ya, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Green Bay, Philadelphia and Atlanta, but we need a few more weeks for you to prove you really belong here in the basement.
Last week we introduced the Turkey Rating (TRKY), a complex formula of offense and defense with point differential and strength of schedule factored in. It can be a good predictor of teams that will remain buried for the season and teams with impending swan dives down the basement stairs.
The TRKY tables below show that wins and losses may not track with a team's TRKY. For example, the Dolphins are 4-3, but they rank #2 in TRKY, worse than the Raiders! And they still play the Jets, Vikings, Colts, Jags and Patriots; all games they can easily lose. the Bills may be their only tough loss. They do play the Packers, but hey, the Pack is back with a -6.3 TRKY, 4th best in the NFL. GB might be the spiraling B-17 nose-first crash of the season (but that will probably be the Jags).
Our Super Bowl champs have a -3.7 TRKY, but they do get to play NY, Washington, and Dallas so....hey.
AFC
Tm
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
TRKY
|
Buffalo Bills
|
2
|
5
|
0
|
-9.7
|
Miami Dolphins
|
4
|
3
|
0
|
-5.3
|
Oakland Raiders
|
1
|
5
|
0
|
-4.4
|
Tennessee Titans
|
3
|
4
|
0
|
-4.2
|
Houston Texans
|
4
|
3
|
0
|
-3
|
Jacksonville Jaguars
|
3
|
4
|
0
|
-2.6
|
New York Jets
|
3
|
4
|
0
|
-2.4
|
Indianapolis Colts
|
2
|
5
|
0
|
-1.2
|
Cleveland Browns
|
2
|
4
|
1
|
-0.6
|
Los Angeles Chargers
|
5
|
2
|
0
|
2.6
|
Cincinnati Bengals
|
4
|
3
|
0
|
3.6
|
New England Patriots
|
5
|
2
|
0
|
6.2
|
Denver Broncos
|
3
|
4
|
0
|
6.3
|
Pittsburgh Steelers
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
7.6
|
Baltimore Ravens
|
4
|
3
|
0
|
10.6
|
Kansas City Chiefs
|
6
|
1
|
0
|
14.2
|
NFC
Tm
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
TRKY
|
Arizona Cardinals
|
1
|
6
|
0
|
-8.2
|
New York Giants
|
1
|
6
|
0
|
-6.6
|
Green Bay Packers
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
-6.3
|
Atlanta Falcons
|
3
|
4
|
0
|
-5
|
Philadelphia Eagles
|
3
|
4
|
0
|
-3.7
|
San Francisco 49ers
|
1
|
6
|
0
|
-3.7
|
Minnesota Vikings
|
4
|
2
|
1
|
-3.1
|
Washington Redskins
|
4
|
2
|
0
|
-2.8
|
Detroit Lions
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
-2.4
|
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
-2.1
|
Carolina Panthers
|
4
|
2
|
0
|
-1.6
|
Dallas Cowboys
|
3
|
4
|
0
|
1
|
Chicago Bears
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
2.8
|
New Orleans Saints
|
5
|
1
|
0
|
4.6
|
Seattle Seahawks
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
7.5
|
Los Angeles Rams
|
7
|
0
|
0
|
12.4
|
And now for this week's predictions.
Not Doormats But they Sure Feel Like It
Dolphins (4-3)- 10
Texans (4-3) -14
(Stiff of the week.)
Eagles (3-4) -28
Jaguars (3-4) -17
(Man this one is tough to call, could go either way.)
Seahawks (3-3) -21
Lions (3-3) -24
Buccaneers (3-3)- 17
Bengals (4-3) -21
Jets (3-4) - 16
Bears (3-3) -36
And the True Doormats
Browns (2-4-1) - 17
Steelers (3-2-1) -38
Redskins (4-2) -10
Giants (1-5) -9
(I can't watch.)
Colts (2-5) -28
Raiders (1-5) -27
(Doormat gold, here. 9 turnovers.)
49ers (1-6) -12
Cardinals (1-6) -13
(Doormat game of the week!)
Patriots (5-2) -42
Bills (2-5) -10
The Oracle has spoken!
Cardinals-49ers rematch should be impossible to lose for the Niners. At some point Beathard is going to get knocked out of a game and the offense will completely disappear.
ReplyDeleteIt should be an exercise in futility. It will be interesting to see what strategy SF eventually uses to get the loss.
ReplyDelete