Well, here in the Doormat Division we have a pretty good understanding of losing, and we can assure you that as much fun as it is to find a way to enjoy losing, nothing beats winning, especially if you have been the perennial loser. After all, the goal of every doormat fan is for an underdog or a longtime loser to finally get up off the mat and shove the reigning champion face first into the mud. So the 49ers had better watch out, because their survey truly makes them Kings of the Doormat. Everyone is gunning for you now.
And now for some stats. We are working with some special doormat stats to rate our teams. In the table below EXP stands for expected points, which means the expected point differential for the team for the year compared to the average total points scored by all NFL teams. It figures in offense and defense performance and strength of schedule. Thank you Pro Football Reference for this awesome stat. The next two stats are our own Doormat formulas. OI is for Offensive Inefficiency, a measure of total yards, first downs, plays per drive, points per drive, punts, third down completions, turnovers, and penalties that determine how inefficient an offense is. A score over 30 is great inefficiency, over 40 is true doormat material, and over 50 is Hall of Fame territory. IPR is the ratio of inefficiency to points scored (success vs. efficiency). Anything below 3 is pretty bad. Below 2.5 is Holy Cow.
As you can see, of the top 15 inefficient teams, the Dolts are winning the stat war. What is even more interesting is some winning teams are sneaking into the mix. Lions, Dolphins, Panthers....a definite sign that though they may be over .500 but they are not going to go far. And the two 0-7 teams are not leading in any of these categories. Once again proving that there is a certain essence to some teams that makes it impossible to lose to them. As St. Thomas said, all things strive to be what they are, and the world is an immense desire resulting in immeasurable effort. In other words, SF and Cleveland are all about losing!
| DOORMAT | EXP | OI | IPR |
| Indianapolis Colts |
-58.49
|
37.95
|
3.14
|
| Baltimore Ravens |
-54.62
|
34.86
|
3.73
|
| Cleveland Browns |
-52.6
|
36.11
|
2.85
|
| Detroit Lions |
-42.51
|
34.93
|
4.61
|
| Chicago Bears |
-42.11
|
36.29
|
3.36
|
| Cincinnati Bengals |
-38.07
|
33.00
|
2.97
|
| Miami Dolphins |
-36.38
|
32.63
|
2.82
|
| Arizona Cardinals |
-32.71
|
45.46
|
2.62
|
| San Francisco 49ers |
-32.45
|
41.47
|
2.97
|
| Denver Broncos |
-27.64
|
40.01
|
2.70
|
| New York Giants |
-26.93
|
39.38
|
2.84
|
| New York Jets |
-18.64
|
37.33
|
3.67
|
| Carolina Panthers |
-12.66
|
46.76
|
2.80
|
But right now it's Week 8 in the NFL, and here come the Oracle's predictions. This week we are in beautiful OU Memorial Stadium in comfortable Norman, Oklahoma, home of the Sooners, to launch frozen turkeys into the bleachers from a flatbed truck full of corn fed country stompin' fans. Yeehaw!
Miami- 17
Baltimore- 12
Minnesota- 28
Cleveland- 14
Oakland- 26
Buffalo- 18
(Not really a doormat game, but we are still tracking both of these teams.)
Indianapolis- 17
Cincinnati- 21
Chicago- 13
New Orleans- 28
San Francisco- 3
Philadephia- 42
Carolina- 17
Tampa Bay- 24
The Oracle has spoken!
"In terms of game day experience, how important is it that your team wins?" OH MAN
ReplyDeleteThese stats are the bible!!! Take them to the bank!!
ReplyDeleteIf the niners get good results on their survey, they could take losing to a new high. Remember the days of tailgates at candlestick where the fans had the seafood on the grill paired with the napa wines. John Madden used to get telestrator going big time illustrating the “strange” behavior of the “wealthy" SF fans. But maybe the owners see the potential in that the fans will do what they do regardless of the win/loss percentage. As long as the "stadium experience" trumps the “game experience”, they might not have to worry about ticket sales.
ReplyDeletethere is precedence nearby. Across the bay the Raiders had the worst record of any NFL team from 2002-2015. but attendance went up virtually every year during that period as did the prices. The Warriors were, with the exception of the Don Nelson year of “We Believe”, the laughing stock of the NBA. continually battling for the 1st round pick, firing the coach midseason, tanking after the all-star break, even hiring Mike Montgomery, yet attendance figures kept creeping up. I read an article in the Portland paper in 2006 detailing this very fact. the Trailblazers were experiencing a let down after the season where most of their players went to jail for some crime and ticket sales were falling. But the point of the article was how most sports teams’ attendance starts to decline with winning percentage except for the Warriors. Their attendance grew every year up to that point (2006) and we know it kept growing until its current level of over 10,000 on the waiting list. Granted the winning has been drastic for last 4 years but you have really large sample for the Chris Cohan years of the Dubs.
The article offered a few theories. First, a market that is starved for a winner doesn’t need to win if the stadium is happening for the fans. the writer did not know of the clown show at warriors games back in the Cohan years but I went to numerous games every year, and I can tell you there was more excitement during the timeouts than when the ball was in play. (I personally hated this aspect of the experience and am glad that the new ownership has removed that and is focused on the team winning) but i digress... another theory the writer had was that all a team has to do make is make it look like the team was trying to win during the offseason and tickets would sell before the season was a disaster. Some believe this is the Billy Bean model for the A’s except that the A’s don’t sell a lot of tickets... but the Giants of today after winning for 6yrs, clearly need a rebuild are not going to admit it and will continue to act as though they could win at anytime never dumping their veterans in exchange for prospects like other rebuilding team do. Because they know that as long as the prospect of winning is in the minds of the fans they will buy tickets. Especially if the stadium experience like AT+T.
so you see the 49ers could be reaching for the pot of gold that exists in the bay area where the fan base will believe the team is close to winning and it doesn’t matter how much they lose. As long as they love the stadium experience they will spend hundreds of dollars per game lining the pockets of the owners. Never have I seen losing teams sell so much merch as the giants or the raiders.
ReplyDeleteThe niners, when they were the winningest team of the decade (1980’s) and everyone thought they should be champion every year and were disappointed when they lost to whomever in NFC Championship game had good ticket sales for a shitty stadium, but no so much in the merchandise and food and drinks or parking. They had to win to keep the fans happy, it was a different era (1979-1999). Now they are testing the waters for the ultimate pot of gold. Incredible ineptitude on field yet positive and faithful fans to the end.
The Raiders are leaving in a year so the red hole will be the only game in town. They have a lot of work to do with that because global warming isn’t going anywhere and no amount of winning or losing can fix that, but hey think of the rewards...
one other side note of bay area sports ticket prices: Sharks finally get to the Stanley cup finals in 2016 ticket prices were over $1000 lower bowl over $800 for upper bowl. the sharks have been very competitive since 1999, reaching the playoffs on a regular basis even having the highest regular season point total, but the elusive Cup Finals- this was the first time. In comparison their opponent the Penguins (perennial winners) the prices were 1/3 of the Sharks. certainly the novelty of the Sharks first Cup and the fact that everything is double the price of anything in pittsburgh PA, but to be that much higher could be indicative of what the 49ers are going to try to achieve.
Rake up on parking, food vendors, drinks, merchandise etc, keep the payroll low, but maintain the facade of possibly winning. every other year bring in a new coach and new low priced free agents to replace the pro-bowlers that need to make salary increases, with the guise that they failed to help the team win. KApnernik gone, Crabtree gone, Navarro Bowman, gone. The formula is there in black and red. make money at all costs, with no need to win because the nature of the bay area fan at this point in time (since 1999 to the current) will support it.
If they are more interested in fan experience than winning then the 49ers should play every game on the road and then every Sunday there could be two other NFL teams playing, like in London or Mexico City. Or the could put an enormous multiscreen Jumbotron on the field and not actually play a game but watch all games at once.
ReplyDelete....and get Silcon Valley to create a giant holographic display so it would look like they were actually watching a game and then people in the stands could participate, a giant virtual reality football game. Who cares if it's real players? They could even have super women players and giant hulk characters....
ReplyDeleteThis would work in Santa Clara. 100%.
Deletewow excellent post Grant!
DeleteI am going to have to watch Walter Matthau in "Taking of Pelham 1-2-3" again and remind myself that there used to be a real world.
ReplyDeleteand then....there's the A's, who have been trying this method (at least always 'rebuilding') and there often more seagulls than fans in the seats. The Raiders, though attendance may have climbed over the years, did not have sellouts for years and years, and were always blacked out (The Silver and Blacked Out) locally on TV. The Don Nelson years (both stints) are what brought the fans to the seats...and then, yes, seemingly inexplicably, the fans stayed. Tickets were also quite cheap for a good long while.
ReplyDeleteDon Nelson brought fans to the Warriors, that is, of course
DeleteAs far as the Jumbotron and no game on field, I think you could just plant a garden on the field, as anybody that has a good seat is underground at the bar.
ReplyDeleteIt is interesting, though, raising ticket prices until they are insane- this causes many season ticket holders to only go to a couple games, and they sell the rest, at even more inflated prices, and then people dump a wad on their ONE GAME of the season. Kind of like we did for the Raiders-Jets game. So, you get one-timers willing to fork over a pile of cash for the 'experience' of a pro football game. Whether your team wins or not DOES become less important. I think if the Whiners turn in 2 more bad seasons, though, things may change. There are a lot of empty seats at the games, I've noticed, even if the games are 'sold out.' But yet- there it is again, they've presold all the tickets. So the 49ers aren't out any money. Just the brokers and re-sellers. Yet.
ReplyDeleteGood point. The greed is part of the problem. If it didn't cost a minimum of $400 just to go to a game, it would be different. Remember the early days of the Blazers when we would just walk up to the ticket booth 20 minutes before game time and get a couple of tickets (for probably then, $5)? The seats were full of regular guys and women, looking for a fun game and a chance to see their beloved Blazers win (which in 1972 was not very often). A sports talk radio host (forget which one) suggested yesterday that the 49ers make it cheap to see a game, after all, the TV revenue alone is probably enough to keep a team afloat. He actually recommended NOT going to NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL games and instead go to minor league baseball (the best value in sports he said) and your local college football game (and I don't mean the Trojans or something, he meant your nearest Div. II or III team). Cheap seats, nice weather, good football/baseball, and everyone there is just having fun.
ReplyDeletesounds like Damon Bruce, he has openly criticized the crass money collecting that goes on at the major/pro league level while on his radio show. We have a real nice Independent League team in San Rafael, fans enjoy the game and the outdoor atmosphere if summer baseball. you can’t beat that.
Deleteas a former Bostonian where sports fans are for lack of a better word, “rabid”, we did not put up with losing, players that sulked or were thought to be lazy or slacking off were chased out of town (see Pablo Sandoval), not just by the fans but the media as well. granted it took till 2004 to end the curse of the bambino, but the Sox were in 4 of the most exciting world series of all time, 1986, 1975, 1967, and 1946, so while not getting the ring they certainly came close enough to feel it. then you got the Celtics (most banners of any NBA team), the Bruins while not perennially champs do have 6 Cups over all. And in the case of the Patriots who were horrible off and on for 30 years (2 super bowl losses) have created the exemplary dynasty since 1999.
ReplyDeletethis charade of pretending to win would not happen. not saying the fans are fair weather, but if the team sucked the tickets were much easier to come by.
one note of history, it was Connie Mack that spawned the idea that it's better to have a good spring, opening the season with a few months of wins sells more tickets than late in the year when people have given up on the team. He should know, he was team owner from 1901-1954 and had multiple champions as well as 18 last place finishes.