Monday, October 29, 2018

Doormat Division Week 8 Fish Wrap

            A DECIDEDLY BAY AREA AROMA,
WITH SOME NEW YORK FUMES MIXED IN

    
           



Now that the Raiders and 49ers have throttled the league into submission, it is only fitting that Thursday Night Doormat will feature the most unwatchable football game that you just gotta watch this week. 1-7 and 1-6, respectively, and looking like they can lose to anybody, the Whinos and the Faders will tee it up on three days rest, which is all any crumbling franchise ask for, short of a 14 hour plane trip to London. Tops on the 49ers list is just trying to field 11 guys on a side for the tilt.  It'll be hideous, it'll be bad, it'll be Doormat football at its finest.  Be there.

DOORMAT DIVISION WEEK 8

NFC            W-L        PF       PA       DIFF

Santa Clara   1-7         173      236       -63
NY Giants     1-7         150     205       -55
Arizona         2-6         110     199        -89
Tampa Bay    3-4         201     233       -32
Atlanta          3-4         190     233        -22
Detroit           3-4         201     186       -15
 
    
AFC            W-L        PF        PA      DIFF

Oakland        1-6         138       218     -80
Buffalo         2-6          87        200      -113
Cleveland     2-5-1      169      210      -41
Denver          3-5         188      194      -6
Jacksonville  3-5         134      170      -36
NY Jets         3-5         192      200      -8


THE GAMES

BILLS 6, PATRIOTS 25
The Pats were hard to shake, but the Bills kept to the game plan, and just refused to score a touchdown, while the Pats will score at least one, even if just by mistake.  Bills make it past -100 points differential, and keeping their point total under 100 (87!) by midseason.  Though they have 2 victories, this is the creme de la creme of the Doormat Division.  They lead the league in fewest first downs, fewest points, and fewest scoring drives that include a first down.  Think about that last one.  For the first time in ages, the Bills are not leading the league in punts, with a meagre 42 vs. the Browns ballooning 59.  

RAIDERS 21, COLTS 42
The Colts have a wide-open defense, built for this year's NFL. Wanna score?  Let us help you. As effective as that is, the Raiders have the real ace in the hole: being overmatched, having to give 150% effort just to be OK, and then running out of gas, completely, in the 4th quarter. Yesterday they coughed up 21 points in the 4th and took a close game and turned it into a blowout.  Raiders 1-6 and the worst in the AFC. It's amazing. 

49ERS 15, CARDINALS 18
I keep saying the Cardinals are the worst team in the league, and they are...but the 49ers have their number, so I have to switch gears.  Though... my gearbox doesn't go that low. 

I can't see the Whiners beating anybody now, except themselves, but the next two weeks will settle that lack of vision: the Raiders this week, on 3 days 'rest', and then the 1-7 Giants next week. How will they do it?  With a milquetoast defense and Doormat pro offensive line, keeping QB C.J. "Sackman" Beathard focused on evasion and quality of turf on most possessions.  

Somehow, the Vegas odds opened with the Raiders as underdogs to the Whiners.  This is only because it's a 49er home game. That's all it takes with this matchup.

JAGS 18, EAGLES 24
It just isn't London without the Jaguars taking the beery air out of Wembly stadium. The English have the best of both worlds:  A functioning parliamentary government, and imported football, where they don't have to fret over their kids or heros getting head trauma injuries. They can just sit back and watch Americans beat the daylights out of each other, go home and make a nice spot of tea as a bracing rainstorm waters their chaotic English garden. Ah, the colonies are so quaint, and they don't cost us a dime anymore. Jags 3-4, have lost four straight and have barged into the Basement. The Jags are so bad they couldn't even pull off going for drinks in a pub, and then trying to waltz out as 'stars' and not pay. The Doormat Division does not pick up the tab in these situations. 

BROWNS 18, STEELERS 33
The Browns have now achieved the all-time record for consecutive road losses: 25. Having at made it to the mountaintop, they fired coach Hugh Jackson. Because, hey, MISSION ACCOMPLISHED.  Winless season AND most consecutive road losses.  Over the last 3.5 seasons, the Brown-outs are 6-49-1.  

But, it was just a football game in Pittsburgh






GIANTS 13, REDSKINS 20
1-7 and tied for the NFC lead, the Gnats have to hang on for the bye week before the huge showdown with the 49ers, on Monday Night Doormat Nov. 12th.  Bye weeks for us basement dwellers is not a time for solving problems. It's a time to get further out of sync, forget the playbook, get in a fight at a club, catch your breath and...yes that's right, there are still EIGHT MORE GAMES TO PLAY. Rub on a little more Ben-Gay.

I have my doubts that the Gnats can lose to the Whiners. They both have porous offensive lines, but the Whines have no pass rush, and a shoddy defensive secondary, so my learned observation is:  Manning will have a throwback day, for one day, on the gridiron in Santa Clara Nov. 12th.  Or he throws his back out.

BUCCANEERS 34, BENGALS 37
It does not matter how many points the Bucs score. Their defense can outscore them.  There is no quarterback controversy when you need to score 40 points to have a shot at winning a game.

JETS 10, BEARS 24
Getting their total yardage down to 207, using eight timely penalties, and this week's low of 12 first downs (which will be shattered by the Bills tonight against the Pats), the Jets appear to be honing the losing down to simpler forms. Just don't do much.


The Doormat Division celebrates the down-trodden, and luckless, and the hapless. As much as we seem to be kicking them when they're down, we're just trying to find a way to ease the pain.  Our Commish's Raiders, my Niners, Fish's Lions...they're all at the bottom, or teetering dangerously near it, yet again. Remember to give your understanding and a hand of help, compassion and love to those less fortunate, and to come together for peace in this land. We gotta pull together.  


aaaAAAAnd THAT'S THE VIEW FROM THE BASEMENT!!!





Wednesday, October 24, 2018

NFL Predictions Week VIII: The Wait is Over


It's finally mid season! The numbers start to normalize, the trends are revealed, and the true bumblers separate from the players who can only dream of spectacular flame outs. There are a few teams out on the patio now, hanging around the grill, hoping for a seat at the duct tape couch. We see ya, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Green Bay, Philadelphia and Atlanta, but we need a few more weeks for you to prove you really belong here in the basement.

Last week we introduced the Turkey Rating (TRKY), a complex formula of offense and defense with point differential and strength of schedule factored in. It can be a good predictor of teams that will remain buried for the season and teams with impending swan dives down the basement stairs. 

The TRKY tables below show that wins and losses may not track with a team's TRKY. For example, the Dolphins are 4-3, but they rank #2 in TRKY, worse than the Raiders! And they still play the Jets, Vikings, Colts, Jags and Patriots; all games they can easily lose. the Bills may be their only tough loss. They do play the Packers, but hey, the Pack is back with a -6.3 TRKY, 4th best in the NFL. GB might be the spiraling B-17 nose-first crash of the season (but that will probably be the Jags).

Our Super Bowl champs have a -3.7 TRKY, but they do get to play NY, Washington, and Dallas so....hey.
 
AFC
Tm 
W
L
T
TRKY
Buffalo Bills       
2
5
0
-9.7
Miami Dolphins
4
3
0
-5.3
Oakland Raiders
1
5
0
-4.4
Tennessee Titans
3
4
0
-4.2
Houston Texans
4
3
0
-3
Jacksonville Jaguars
3
4
0
-2.6
New York Jets
3
4
0
-2.4
Indianapolis Colts
2
5
0
-1.2
Cleveland Browns
2
4
1
-0.6
Los Angeles Chargers
5
2
0
2.6
Cincinnati Bengals
4
3
0
3.6
New England Patriots
5
2
0
6.2
Denver Broncos
3
4
0
6.3
Pittsburgh Steelers
3
2
1
7.6
Baltimore Ravens
4
3
0
10.6
Kansas City Chiefs             
6     
1   
0   
14.2


NFC
Tm                                          
W
L
T
TRKY
Arizona Cardinals
1
6
0
-8.2
New York Giants
1
6
0
-6.6
Green Bay Packers
3
2
1
-6.3
Atlanta Falcons
3
4
0
-5
Philadelphia Eagles
3
4
0
-3.7
San Francisco 49ers
1
6
0
-3.7
Minnesota Vikings
4
2
1
-3.1
Washington Redskins
4
2
0
-2.8
Detroit Lions
3
3
0
-2.4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3
3
0
-2.1
Carolina Panthers
4
2
0
-1.6
Dallas Cowboys
3
4
0
1
Chicago Bears
3
3
0
2.8
New Orleans Saints
5
1
0
4.6
Seattle Seahawks
3
3
0
7.5
Los Angeles Rams
7
0
0
12.4


And now for this week's predictions.

Not Doormats But they Sure Feel Like It

Dolphins (4-3)- 10
Texans (4-3) -14

(Stiff of the week.)

Eagles (3-4) -28
Jaguars (3-4) -17

(Man this one is tough to call, could go either way.)

Seahawks (3-3) -21
Lions (3-3) -24

Buccaneers (3-3)- 17
Bengals (4-3) -21

Jets (3-4) - 16
Bears (3-3) -36


And the True Doormats

Browns (2-4-1) - 17
Steelers (3-2-1) -38

Redskins (4-2) -10
Giants (1-5) -9

(I can't watch.)

Colts (2-5) -28
Raiders (1-5) -27

(Doormat gold, here. 9 turnovers.)

49ers (1-6) -12
Cardinals (1-6) -13
(Doormat game of the week!)


Patriots (5-2) -42
Bills (2-5) -10


The Oracle has spoken!