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| Crunching some numbers for the Doormat Division. The true doormats are emerging as the turkey slowly turns. |
Here are two important Turkey Stats. With a six pack of games down the hatch, these numbers start to be meaningful. The first number is the Doormat Rating, derived from a formula of overall defense subtracted from overall offense and then squared and lager-rhythm-ed (a way to chug beer) with point differential, margin of victory, and turnovers. The lower the score, the more doormat-like the team. The second stat is Strength of Schedule (of games so far, not future games). A low Doormat Rating coupled with a weak strength of schedule is a good indicator of an impending swan dive.
And here are the numbers ordered by Doormat Rating. I have included every team with a negative number, regardless of wins and losses:
AFC, Doormat Rating, SOS
BUF, -8.6, 1.8
OAK, -7.8, 3.2
TEN, -4, -.7
HOU, -3.6, -3.2
IND, -3.2, 1.5
JAX, -2.2, .7
MIA, -1.6, .9
CLE, -1.2, 2.6
NFC, Doormat Rating, SOS
NYG, -7.9, -.4
ARI, -6.9, 2.6
SAN, -4.4, .7
MIN, -3.3, .4
TAM, -3.3, -3.1
DET, -3.2, -.8
GRE, -2.7, -3.4
WAS, - 2.6, -2.6
OK, in the AFC Houston is a -3.6 and one of the weakest schedules in the AFC. Lookin’ Toxic there, guys! Buffalo is, of course, solid bad. And watch Jacksonville, they are teetering with a -2.2 Doormat Rating, though their SOS is pretty strong. They might crash and burn.
In the NFC the Giants and Buccaneers are both showing powerful Doormat Ratings and a weak SOS. Look for them to crumble. And keep an eye on the Vikings, not looking great for that ship, and the Packers.
If we do some more analysis and pick the four worst teams based on a formula of Doormat Rating and SOS, here are the results (in order):
AFC
- Houston
- Buffalo
- Tennessee
- Oakland
NFC
- New York
- Tampa Bay
- Green Bay
- Minnesota
And now the Oracle plucks the frozen turkey from the almost frozen freezer and spins to divine the predictions:
Broncos - 16
Cardinals- 12
Bills- 17
Colts -28
Lions- 21
Dolphins- 27
Browns- 21
Buccaneers -17
Rams- 38
49ers- 12
Giants- 14
Falcons- 28
Vikings -36
Jets- 28
Raydurz get a week off to work the bilge pumps.
The Oracle has Spoken!
I think teams with rookie QBs, with rare exceptions, tend to really struggle after 6 games. The Cardinals had that on display on a monumental scale last night. The Browns and Baker Mayfield looked it last week. BUT, the Bucs don't have much of a defense, so that should be a wild one. Sam Darnold with the Jets will be up and down all season. Viking defense not what it was last year, but should still know how to make it a long day at the yard for Darnold.
ReplyDeleteI don't understand how Green Bay does rank below the Cardinals.
ReplyDeleteThey have Rodgers, and not much else, and their low performance on a weak schedule suggests they are on the down slide. But it’s just statistics, and as you pointed out, so many rookie QBs will really skew a season.
DeleteBarely squeaking by the 49ers was the biggest red flag of the season.
DeleteYeah, and they only did it because Rodgers pulled another one of his miracles. Imagine if he had played on a team the last 6 seasons that was solid in every capacity. Pack would have won 3 or 4 Super Bowls.
ReplyDelete