The matchup of the season is this Sunday as the New York Giants (Gnats) stumble into 501 Stadium in San Pasadena Frisco to tilt with the San Francisco 49ers (Whiners) for an afternoon of shocking ineptitude. This may be the game no one wants to see, but for us doormat fans, it doesn't get any better. Fire up the grill, get out the hot dogs, and crack open the warm beer. It's gonna be a long, glorious Sunday afternoon of fumbles, punts, picks, dropped passes, and missed blocks.
If the Gnats can manufacture a good loss on SF's home turf, they will suddenly be tied for first in the NFC doormat standings. This is one of the best flops in recent memory. But, if Whiners can continue their indomitable badness, it could put the bottom of the NFC out of reach for everyone.
Who will win? Let's dive head first into the stats (watch out for those shallow rocks):
D-Yards per play: SF, 5.4-NYG, 5.8
O-Yards per play: SF, 4.7-NYG, 4.9
First Downs allowed: SF, 208-NYG, 165
Penalty yards: SF, 569-NYG, 466
Turnovers: SF 14-NYG, 10
Offensive Inefficiency: SF, 43.76-NYG, 41.66
Punts: SF, 52-NYG, 46
Avg. time of possession per drive: SF, 2:16-NYG, 2:21 (worst two in NFL)
O-EXP: SF, -71.25-NYG, -31.59
D-EXP: SF, -62.14, NYG, -44.06
Combined EXP: SF, -133.39-NYG, -75.65
Well, that's a pile of numbers, and they add up to...I don't know what. One interesting note, based on TOP, there should be 27 drives (wow), 10 three-and-outs, and 13 punts. Both teams average a 1.3 points per drive (with SF .2 percent better). That should result in a total combined game score of 17 points. What a fabulously fruitless, mind numbing time it will be in Button Your Own Pants stadium.
Now, SF does have the edge in 9 of 11 categories. So this Oracle is leaning to the Whiners. I will say 10-7.
And now for the rest of the predictions. This week we go not by spinning turkeys, but combined EXP. By the way, tonights lousy game with Arizona and Seattle will result in at least one of them with their nose pressed against the doormat cave sliding glass patio door. We won't let either in!
Packers (-14.6)- 21
Bears (-32.8)- 12
Browns (-74.9)- 10
Lions (-1.22) - 36
Steelers (70.15)- 28
Colts (-134.39)- 9
Jets (-23.9)- 16
Buccaneers (-33.93) 13
Giants (-75.65)- 10
49ers (-133.39)- 7
Patriots (7)- 24
Broncos (-14.44)- 13
Dolphins (-78.11)- 16
Panthers (22.85)- 27
Bengals (-34.18)- 6
Titans (-15.8)- 12
The Oracle has spoken!
Colts should follow up a victory with a whopper of a loss. Browns should handle the Lions easily. I can't see the Packers winning another game until Rodgers gets back. The Bucs are in serious free-fall, the bottom's the limit. Panthers have turned into something better than Parity, Fins should swoon. Bengals seem spectacularly bad, but they often follow up the huge stinkers with a decent game. Last week was their worst yet this season, so that game's going to be tight. The 49ers-Giants is a TOSS-UP. I think Manning might be the difference, and the Giants may not be able to avoid winning. Plan on seeing Garappolo in the 2nd half, after the Whines don't score for the first 6 drives.
ReplyDeleteWhat is EXP?
ReplyDeleteIt is Expected Points by end of season compared to league average if the previous season. So -50 on offense, for example, means a team will score 50 fewer points than the league average for a season. -50 on defense means the team is predicted to give up 50 more points tgan the league average. D-EXP is defense (how many points you give up) and O-EXP is offense (how many points scored). The formula is calculated weekly by factoring offense and defense stats as well as strength of schedule and current injuries.
ReplyDeleteNiners are the EXP kings. Funny, since so many of their games early on were so close. But those two blowouts changed all that.
DeleteDolts have a slightly more magnificent negative combined EXP than the Whiners, which is why I predict they won't do well in the second half of the season--though they are in a week division. Packers are in negative EXP territory now, so don't expect much from them until Rodgers is back. Combined EXP is just adding offense and defense. If you are more than 30 negative, you are a doormat. I love negative numbers.
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