Basking in the glory of a great World Series, the Oracle from the Basement (me) passed out on the barcalounger, a can of beer in his hand, and missed the first doormat game of the week. It was the sound of my beer can bouncing on the floor that woke me up, just in time for the game wrap on the flickering CRT screen we call the TV around here in the Doormat Cave. “What? The Jets won? Are you kidding me?”
Hey, I just gave up on the Bills losing games and now they really do lose. My teams are ruining my season! The Jets had no business winning that game, though they have shown a tendency to hang around in games this season. Not exactly easy to put away. They probably won’t tank.
And speaking of tanking, we all know who the AFC and NFC Doormat winners will be: SF and Cleveland (unless the Giants and the Colts run the table and SF and Cleveland manage to win three games). But the big question now, at midseason, is which doormats are poised to tank?
Here are our doormats with their offensive, defensive, and combined EXP ratings at week 8 (sorted by combined). EXP shows how close to the average team they will be at the end of the season. So a -50 offensive EXP means that team will score 50 fewer points than the average NFL team. A defensive EXP is the opposite, how many points they will give up compared to the average team. A negative number is doormat territory in both categories.
DOORMAT EXP STATS
| TEAM | O-EXP | D-EXP | COMB |
| IND | -62 | -75 | -137 |
| SF | -51 | -66 | -117 |
| MIA | -72 | -3 | -75 |
| CLE | -57 | -17 | -74 |
| OAK | 12 | -60 | -48 |
| NYG | -27 | -19 | -46 |
| CHI | -49 | 17 | -32 |
| TEN | -17 | -5 | -22 |
| DET | -42 | 24 | -18 |
| CIN | -36 | 18 | -18 |
| AZ | -32 | 18 | -14 |
| TB | 27 | -33 | -6 |
| NE | 98 | -92 | 6 |
| CAR | -18 | 36 | 18 |
| BAL | -51 | 70 | 19 |
| DNV | -36 | 56 | 20 |
| LAC | 37 | -7 | 30 |
(Note that division leader and Super Bowl favorite New England is on this list. They have the third best O-EXP but the worst—by far-D-EXP; that has got to bite them at some point.)
Based on this data, we can be sure that SF and Cleveland will stay on the bottom, but Indianapolis, with combined EXP of -137 is poised for a historic run to the deeper bottom, and Detroit, Oakland, New York Giants, Miami, Tampa Bay and Chicago could also put pressure on the bottom. Just like a black hole, the gravity of defeat gets so bad it warps space around it.
There are some teams on this list that have decent records and may even have a shot at a playoff spot. Of these teams, the Oracle predicts the following will lose at least 5 of the last 8 games of the season: Tennessee, Baltimore, Carolina, and Denver. Patriots will lose three (Buffalo on the road, Pittsburgh, and New York Jets.).
Chargers, Arizona, NYJ and Texans are going to be over .500 in the second half.
But now for the Week 9 NFL Predictions:
Cardinals- 28
Niners- 10
Raiders- 28
Dolphins- 27
Bengals- 10
Jaguars- 24
Buccaneers- 21
Saints- 33
Rams- 42
Giants- 16
Broncos- 14
Eagles- 36
Ravens- 15
Tennessee- 21
Lions- 17
Packers- 21
Colts- 9
Texans- 17
The Oracle has spoken!
Great post. My Vikings don't even make this list. The Packers are a wild card, since they are kind of a 'new' team since they don't have Rodgers now. I have to say I feel some for the 49ers- they now lost Pierre Garcon (their only great receiver) for the season and OT Joe Staley is out, and even if they throw new QB Garoppolo out there, he'll have a target on his front, back, and sides. Coach Shananhan says they aren't going to rush Garoppolo out there, so I'm sure they'll wait until...the 2nd half.
ReplyDeleteI heard on the radio from a niners “insider” that because of the loss of Staley and Garcon, the Niners are going to try to win the game by running the ball and field position/clock control. ...
Delete...haven’t heard anybody actually say they were going to use this strategy in a long time. maybe its a decoy. but wouldn’t it be better to say we are going vertical with the offense as a decoy in the niners case?
You got that right!
Delete