As the NFL doormats stagger into week 11, we take a look at the 16 teams in negative territory in terms of “EXP” which means the predicted combined offensive and defensive output of a team by season’s end as compared to the average team in the 2016 season. This is a very complicated formula that accounts for strength of schedule and numerous offense and defense stats.
There are exactly 16 teams (half the league) in negative territory. A team plus or minus 10 is in the middle of Parity Junction, minus 25 means your team is marginally awfully, able to lose to just about anyone. Once you are plus or minus 40, well, you are headed for the playoffs or you are on the patio looking down the external stairs to the basement. That used to be the coal chute, I think. Slide on down! Pick up a shovel and start working. It’s cold down there. When you're finished you can have a beer and some old pizza.
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Indianapolis Colts |
-142.94
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San Francisco 49ers |
-128.78
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Miami Dolphins |
-109.07
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Cleveland Browns |
-81.51
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New York Giants |
-80.26
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Chicago Bears |
-47.93
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Cincinnati Bengals |
-41.38
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Buffalo Bills |
-38.73
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Oakland Raiders |
-38.05
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Arizona Cardinals |
-31.77
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New York Jets |
-30.62
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
-27.21
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Denver Broncos |
-25.57
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Tennessee Titans |
-8.69
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Kansas City Chiefs |
-6.73
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Washington Redskins |
-0.05
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Wow, Dolts and Whiners and Fins are gettin' it done! Now the Giants are clearly playing at the lowest level in the NFL right now, but their EXP is still -80, not as bad as the Browns, Dolphins, 49ers, or Colts. But remember, this is production, not wins and losses. The Giants may have a better points lost to points gained ration than the Colts, but head to head, Colts probably win. But who knows? I am going with the numbers here and predicting the Giants are going to find a way to be 4-12.
And now for this week’s predictions. Wow, the Texans are not on the list above, but boy are they losing! They definitely will be in the basement before the Fat Lady Sings.
Lions- 36
Bears- 21
Jags- 33
Browns- 10
Cards- 14
Texans- 16
Skins- 24
Saints-104
Chiefs- 20
Giants-2
Bucs- 10
Fins- 9
Bills- 21
Chargers-26
Bengals-17
Broncos-14
Pats-28
Raiders-36
Ravens- 21
Packers- 17
The Oracle has Spoken!
wow...the Bills and Raiders EXP. Not a good sign. Cards-Texans is our Stiff Of The Week, for sure...though Bucs-Fins is the Florida Swamp Special, no doubt. Wow, and LOOK- BENGALS-BRONCOS. Somebody has to win. Maybe. If the Bungles can lose to the Broncos, there is no bottom to that sinkhole.
ReplyDeleteAmazing that the Vikings, a team we all expected to spend most of the season in their own territory, are actually favored by 6 points over the red hot Los Angeles Rams this weekend. To make it even more bizarre, on Thanksgiving the Lions and Vikings will play in a crucial Week 12 matchup that could be the decisive game for the NFC North Division. Lions and Vikings serious contenders? Really?
ReplyDeleteI'm watching the Vikes-Lions on TG for SURE. I am not missing that. I can't believe my old beloved Vikes are contenders, and with Case Keenum playing the season of his life. I seriously underestimated these guys, but it does help that the Pack, Bears and Lions are all beatable now. But the Lions will...I don't know do the Lions ever play well on TG? They've done it for forever. I may have to consult the pro-football reference oracle.
DeleteFrom 2004 to 2012, the Lions lost every single TG game (including, of course the 2008 Perfect Season), but have won it the last 4 years, including a 40-10 pasting of the Packers in 2013. Should be a good game.
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DeleteThe history for Lions is grim. They usually get roasted. Matt Stafford era has helped break the jinx. But Vikings are good and confident right now, and this should be a blood and guts slug out of a game. No idea who will win, but numbers lean to Vikings.
a game no one is talking about and I know why, because why would anyone not in the state of florida talk about the battle for florida except us doormat fans, and that is the battle for futility: the fins vs the boots. i’m not going to waste a lot of space talking about it now either. lets just say lots of fumbles and people reminiscing about hurricane Irma moving the game from week one to week 11... why would anyone want to play football in full pads on a sunday afternoon in early september in florida?. i think the cancellation of this game was a blessing in disguise for both teams AND for us!!! because now the fins are fading fast and the boots are getting it in the butt now more than earlier. enjoy!
ReplyDeletehere is the write up from Yahoo on this game. pretty good for this type of thing, some nice alliteration as well as stats about ineptitude. I’m excited. https://sports.yahoo.com/news/dolphins-buccaneers-meet-delayed-game-023445584--nfl.html
DeleteI don't even think alligators are talking about this one. Well, grab a swamp toad and lick it for luck, because this game is gonna be the messiest dang thing. Dolphins and Bucs will come out swinging. Gonna be a hard loss to nail down for either team.
DeleteI'm callin' this game "The Swamp Thing."
Deletewe need a “like" button for the comment section!!
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