Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Doormat Drives Hit Walls in NFL Week 7 Predictions



In the 2017 NFL Season 35 percent of drives result in a score and 11 percent result in a turnover. That's the average. For a little perspective, Kansas City scores on 49 percent of its drives and turns the ball over 1.6 percent of the time. Cleveland scores 19 percent of drives and turns the ball over 22.5 percent of the time. Yes, 1 in 5 drives is a pick or a fumble TO. Imagine the excitement at home games, knowing that your team will definitely do something drastically wrong about every 20 plays from scrimmage (Cleveland averages 5 plays per drive and 11 drives per game, yes, 5 plays per drive).

And here are our doormat drive  TO leaders:

Team  / Drive TO%
CLE     22.5
CHI     18.6
CIN     16.7
BAL    16.4
CAR    14.8

Note CAR. It's stats like these that reveal the teams that may be over .500, but not looking so good for a deep drive into the playoffs.

And speaking of drives, I used to have this recurring dream. I am screaming down a hilly two-lane road in my El Camino, foot right to the floor. Suddenly, a brick wall pops up in the middle of the road and I slam right into it. I go through the windshield and just as my head hits the bricks, I wake up.

Well, that is what it is going to be like for some teams this week...

And now the predictions:

Chiefs- 36
Raiders- 17
(KC has a 3 point spread in Vegas, but the Oracle knows better. Raiders are putting it in reverse and stomping on the gas.)

Buccaneers- 17
Buffalo- 21
(Wah, my Bills are winning)

Panthers- 21
Bears- 24
(Chicago stuns suspect Panthers. Panthers hit the wall.)

Titans- 24
Browns- 15
(5 field goals for Browns. This one is actually a hard call. Cleveland might get a win in this one, but the flying turkey said no.)

Jaguars- 17
Colts- 14
(Indy fans are still dreaming about a run for the AFC South. Dream turns nightmare against Jacksonville wall.)

Cardinals- 28
Rams- 33
(The Cards are really 3-3? Reality sets in this week. Rams are the wall.)

Jets- 17
Dolphins- 10
(Wow, both of these teams are at or over .500. How is that possible? One of them has to hit the wall this week, and that one is the Fins. They have only made 54 drives this season, and only averaged 1.04 points per drive--lowest in the NFL. That stat is going to haunt them all season.)

Cowboys- 20
49ers- 19
(Whiners lose another close game. Cowboys get to .500, but only for one week.)

Bengals- 10
Steelers- 28
(Steelers suck this year. But, hey, they are playing the Bengals.)

Broncos- 10
Chargers- 9

Seahawks- 24
Giants- 10

And the Oracle has spoken!





6 comments:

  1. I gotta disagree with the Bronco, Charger score. the Charger kicker is not good enough to hit 3 FGs, so I predict it will be Charger 10
    Bronco 9

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    Replies
    1. That's a safety and a TD with 2-point conversion.

      Delete
  2. Love the turnover per drive stat. Cleveland fans....if a drive goes over 8 plays.....AAAAAA!!!!

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  3. My prediction is that either the Bungles or the Dolts will make a return to the Doormat Division...they get to decide who on 10/29.

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    Replies
    1. Luck just had another setback with his rehab, so, I'd keep it to Indy for now- but it's hard to ever count out the Bungles.

      Delete

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