And Then There Were Four

Well, guess what? Only one fancy pants team with a lousy defense is left in the quest for the Reverse Moldy Carpet trophy, which I have been told is called the Super Bowl Trophy. Something like that. It's hard to see the writing when you are down in the basement and the trophy is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay way up there on that shelf in the nice room with all the shiny stuff. We're not allowed in there.

This weekend's games was the classic reminder that hard tough defense, error-free offense and turnovers carry the day in the playoffs. The Niners set that tone at their 3 yard line with The Hit of the weekend, Donte Whitner knocking out Pierre Thomas, and knocking out the ball, stopping the Saints cold on their first drive. The wisdom was the Niners couldn't score more than 27. Alex Smith and Vernon Davis clearly had another plan. Not bad for having been in the 10 Club just last year.

Doormat Legacy: Niners still kept it under 20 first downs, punted 8 times, poor 3rd down conversion (wow are they terrible there, 3rd and 7 is like 3rd and a MILE), and Alex Smith still does not have a 300-yard game in his career (299 on Saturday). So some solid Doormat tendencies still hanging around. But ZERO turnovers.

The Giants, what can you say? After losing to the 49ers on Nov 13th and then losing three more in a row, the Giants win 5 of the last 6 and look like their old selves in the playoffs. Kicking, scratching, biting, and flinging the bomb. Watch out. Eli Manning and the Hail Mary. Wow.

The Patriots look like the offensive machine we have come to expect every year for the last 10+, and they got to play the absolute worst team in the playoffs, the Buncos, who thank goodness finished 9-9, and preserve some sort of Doormat Cred. Their defense looked great against the Bunks, but perhaps that was just because someone finally did a little research about how you defense the option, and why nobody runs it in the NFL (fast and smart linebackers, anyone?).

And, finally, the Baltimore Ravens, the team with the killer defense, and a stench-defying offense! Tom Brady better hope he doesn't end up on a gurney by halftime. The Ravens got a Doormat Gold 11 first downs, 227 total yards, 9 punts, and WON the stinking game yesterday, because the Texans gifted them two touchdowns and basically coughed the ball up whenever they were in danger of mounting a threat. Rookie quarterbacks and the playoffs really don't mix once you hit the second round.

OKAY, on to the matchups!

If you've spent any time watching football for the last 30 years, you know that a Niners-Giants matchup in the playoffs is something to put on extra padding for. Some of the most brutal contests are these two in the playoffs. Joe Montana got hit so hard once by Giant DE Leonard Marshall, breaking his hand and cracking some ribs, that he said "I thought I was gonna die." The worst beating the 49ers ever had in the playoffs was the 49-3 shellacking at the hands of the Giants back in 1989. The 49er faithful haven't forgotten, and neither have the Giants fans forgotten the galling 39-38 loss back in 2003. The playoff record between these two is 4-3 49ers. Wanna read up on a crusher? 1991, 15-13 Giants win in the NFC Championship (see Montana quote above).

OKAY, the game: The 49ers get a home game, but it's against a team that is going to give them a far tougher fight than the Packers were going to. The Giants defense is ranked lower (25th) than the Patriots (15), but ignore that.

What not to ignore is that Green Bay dropped a lot of wide-open passes yesterday. The Giants secondary is so-so, unless they come up with INTs. Alex Smith doesn't throw interceptions...he throws it away (hence the crummy 3rd down conv. percentage). So, Niners aren't going to go nuts, but they will have some chances in the air. Giants defend the run decently, and Frank Gore, though he got in a big run and made some big catches late in the game Saturday, is running on tired legs (he does a lot of pass blocking). Watch for some trick plays with Ted Ginn Jr., if he is healthy, and making Gore an outlet option a tad more. Giants will triple team Vernon Davis, and so Michael Crabtree is going to have to go up and get a few. Best chance for INTs is to get your hands up and deflect Smith's passes, as he is a tad short and throws flat on short passes.

Giants have zero running game, worst in the league, and it should get nowhere on Sunday, putting Eli Manning in the 49er pass rush target sights. Serious trouble for NY. Anytime Manning puts on a helmet and hits the field, I give them a chance. He comes up big in the big games.

The weather forecast is for rain and a swamp of a field, as only a below sea-level field just a parking lot from the water can produce. I really think both teams are going to have an extremely hard time scoring at all, and it's going to come down to a long field goal as time expires. 49er kicker David Akers set the record for most field goals ever this year and hit on 7 of 9 from over 50 yards, which is kind of obscene.

Giants K Lawrence Tynes is no slouch, but hit on only 1 of 3 from over 50.

Pick: 49ers by 1

The team that gets no respect (supposedly) against the team that always looks like they are just going to march into the Super Bowl and win, but, in fact, don't. But 3 out of 4 times in 10 years ain't bad. I mean, the Cleveland Browns haven't done that. Just sayin'. Have another bowl of Chomps (special Super Bowl flavor- "Bitter").

The GAME: Do the Ravens have a weakness on defense? If anyone is going to find it, Tom Brady will. Once again, the Pats are another playoff team with not much of a running game, and against the Ravens, that's trouble.

The Ravens have a running game, definitely, and the Pats are not tough on the run. If the Ravens can get an early lead, they could grind it out and pull out a win. If Brady can find some time to throw, and they make a good game plan, and snag a couple of early turnovers, Ravens go home. The Ravens have already played the toughest AFC defense in the playoffs (Texans), so they will move the ball. The Pats are surprisingly good at stopping teams from scoring, when they have to.

The Ravens have played exactly ONE team, all year, with any kind of a high powered offense, the Chargers. And they lost 34-14. They barely beat the Browns 20-14. Joe Flacco is not Joe Namath, fu manchu mustache or not.

Pick: Pats by 14.

aaaAAAAAAAAAAAnd That's the View from the Basement!