Oddsmakers in Vegas (and anywhere else for that matter) say the most telling statistic of all is "Net Yards Per Play" (or at least that is what they said on Fox Sports Talk Radio). This is not net per offensive or net per defensive play (though they are important too), but the difference. In other words, take average yards gained per play on offense and subtract average yards given per play on defense and you get Net Yards Per Play (NYPP). This is the primary data point used to determine spreads when making odds.
So how do our doormats fare? Take a look at the tale told by the table below. One interesting thing is the Chiefs have a doormat-quality stat for Net Yards Per Play, but they are 9-2, but maybe, say the guys in Vegas, not for long...
Seattle leads the NFL in NYPP with New Orleans, Denver, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Detroit, and Arizona are in line behind them. This, say the oddsmakers, means you should see these teams do well in the playoffs (if they get there) and two of them will be in the Super Bowl.
Jacksonville, of course, leads the Doormats! But Houston, oddly enough, is ranked about 14th in NYPP. So their record, and KC's are truly bizarre.
And that is why we love it here in the basement. Pull up a stool, get a warm beer, open some chips, light a cigar, and enjoy some bizarre football this Thanksgiving weekend!
wow the differences are much smaller than I thought they might be- but of course it adds up. yeah, I think this year's Cheaps are last year's Texans...maybe a little better. But not by much.
ReplyDeletecan we just change the name of Houston to Texas Texans?
ReplyDeletealso watching a brownies game must be truly slow, average on offense only 4.7, not bad on D where the average is 4.4. excruciating if you like high powered offensive games.